NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. payrolls for August, euro zone inflation and Asia purchasing managers surveys – here’s a quick look ahead to next week’s top economic events and themes to be covered by Reuters bureaus.
It’s all about jobs next week with nonfarm payrolls for August on tap on Friday morning ahead of the long weekend for the Labor Day holiday.
Nearly 1.9 million jobs were created in June and July, and it’s a toss-up among economists whether that pace can be sustained. The preliminary Reuters estimate pegs jobs growth at 763,000 for August, but watch for updated forecasts early in the week and potentially after Wednesday’s ADP’s private-sector jobs report.
An extension of the previous two months’ gains could be enough for Federal Reserve officials to declare they have made “substantial further progress” toward maximum employment and price stability goals. That could set up a decision – or at least a more heated debate – on the much-awaited “tapering” of the central bank’s $120 billion a month of bond purchases at their September meeting.
In Europe, the most eagerly anticipated news is the first estimate of euro zone inflation for August on Tuesday. Market expectations are for 2.7% year-on-year, above the July figure of 2.2% and moving ever further away from the ECB’s target of close to but not exceeding 2%. Still, it is unlikely that this alone will prompt a re-think of the current ECB view that price pressures are transitory and that stimulus policies can continue well into next year.
The German economy, the region’s largest, has been producing mixed signals of late with downbeat business and consumer morale figures suggesting growing concern about coronavirus infections and the impact of supply chain snags. Wednesday’s retail sales index for July may do little to brighten the picture with most analysts expecting a sharp fall from the bounce they got the month before – and some analysts even expecting a fall month-on-month.
Britain meanwhile has been suffering more than most from supply and labour shortages as COVID-19 and semiconductor-related factors are compounded by a post-Brexit exodus of skilled workers. The final and complete read-out of Markit/CIPS index of Purchase Managers’ views of the economy – both for manufacturing and services – in August may offer further clues to its overall health on Friday.
Purchasing managers index surveys highlight the agenda in Asia next week, and they may show if the factory closure woes that have been afflicting the region as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads have materially worsened or improved.
It kicks off Tuesday with China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which barely registered growth in July and sits at the lowest since January 2020 coming into the month.
That is followed on Wednesday by PMI reports across Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Last month’s reports showed divisions in the region, with continued strength in Japan and South Korea and Delta-driven slumps across most of Southeast Asia.
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