* Poland’s incumbent Duda wins presidential election
* Investors eye start of U.S. earnings season
* Turkish industrial production shrinks less-than-expected in May
By Shreyashi Sanyal
July 13 (Reuters) – Emerging market risk assets started the week on a strong footing on Monday, with investors turning their focus towards the beginning of the U.S. corporate earnings season, while Poland’s zloty edged higher after Andrzej Duda won the country’s presidential election.
Market participants are optimistic that U.S. companies will beat already lowered expectations, with big banks JPMorgan , Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting on Tuesday.
“I expect that trading revenues will outperform once again as market volatility continues,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA.
“More attention is likely to be given to the big banks’ forward guidance on the global economy, and the level of bad debt provisioning.”
Assets in emerging markets have risen sharply since a selloff in March, but have remained in a holding pattern for the last couple weeks due to a lack of market drivers and caution over the rising number of COVID-19 cases worldwide.
Analysts also suggest that monetary policy, which was a key driver of the market recovery so far, will gradually lose influence to the earnings outlook.
MSCI’s index for emerging market stocks rose 0.7%, while its currencies counterpart index gained 0.1%.
Shares in the developing world also got a boost from a positive reading on a potential COVID-19 treatment as an analysis from Gilead Sciences Inc on Friday showed its antiviral remdesivir helped reduce the risk of death in severely ill patients.
In Poland, incumbent candidate Andrzej Duda won the presidential election, according to majority results, the National Electoral Commission said on Monday. The zloty made small gains against the dollar, while Polish stocks rose 0.6%.
“With Duda holding on to power, Polish politics will retain its status quo for now – the prospect of a new era in politics is receding. For the zloty, this outcome is relatively positive as the market tends to prefer continuity over uncertainty,” said Tatha Ghose, FX and emerging markets analyst at Commerzbank.
Among other emerging market currencies including the Russian rouble, Turkish lira and South Africa’s rand , all rose against a weaker dollar.
Data from Turkey showed some signs of relief as industrial production shrank less-than-expected in May.
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2020, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2020, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX
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For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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