Sturgeon POLL: Should SNP drop independence demands after Brexit gamble backfires?

IndyRef2: Poll puts support for Scottish Independence at 55%

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The SNP expected Brexit to transform the debate on Scottish independence, as it was assumed Remain voters would move in favour of independence to retain their EU citizenship. After all, 62 percent of Scots voted to remain in the EU in 2016.


But polls over the last two years have not seen a significant or persistent rise in Scottish support for independence, and month by month, figures tend to cross over and under the 50 percent mark.

From September 1 to November 22, eight different polls found that support to remain in the UK was stronger in Scotland than support to leave.

But the most recent poll of over 1,000 Scottish nationals, undertaken by IpsosMori between November 22 and 29, found that 52 percent of Scots would vote in favour of independence, 43 percent would not, and 4 percent were unsure.

Nevertheless, Brexit has not had the powerful effect Ms Sturgeon would have hoped for after claiming that Scotland was being forced to leave the bloc “against its will”.

Former Labour MP and political commentator for the Telegraph Tom Harris said: “The main reason independence has not yet made the breakthrough expected by Remainers and Rejoiners across the land, is one that few of them would be willing to acknowledge: Scots in general, even those who regret our departure from the EU, regard the 300-year-old social, political and economic Union as more important and more precious than a 50-year-old trade deal.”

While re-joining the EU would give Scotland’s economy a small boost, parting from the UK would undo those gains tenfold, data suggests.

Can’t see the poll below? Click here.

The UK is Scotland’s largest and most important trading partner, accounting for 61 percent of its exports and 67 percent of its imports – around four times greater than its trade with the EU.

Experts from the London School of Economics (LSE) predict independence would increase trading costs with the rest of the UK by 15 to 30 percent.

Hanwei Huang, an LSE researcher, said: “This analysis shows that, at least from a trade perspective, independence would leave Scotland considerably poorer than staying in the United Kingdom.”

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But Ms Sturgeon has promised Scotland that she will secure another independence referendum by the end of 2023.

And it looks like her political career depends on it, as SNP ministers grow increasingly restless.

According to Tom Harris: “The biggest threat to her comes from her own party members, who are not prepared to wait for a whole generation before achieving their dream of separation from the UK.”

Can she risk dropping her independence demands? Would the SNP fall out of power if she did? Let us know your opinion in the comments section below.

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