Tories in danger of losing Red Wall seats as voters ‘angered’ by sleaze and parties

Boris Johnson attends Covid-19 data briefing

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New polls suggest Boris Johnson could lose his majority and his parliamentary seat should an election be held tomorrow. According to large-scale research and MRP analysis by 38 Degrees and Survation, Labour would retake the so-called Red Wall from the Tories, taking 309 seats on a 42 percent vote share.

Meanwhile the data suggests the Tories would lose 111 constituencies to end on 255 seats.

The sudden swing in polling is in part due to older voters showing greater concern over the recent scandals plaguing the Government, including lobbying, second jobs and the alleged Downing street Christmas parties.

Matthew McGregor, CEO of 38 Degrees, said support for the Tories is collapsing.

He told The i: “Anger over sleaze is causing a collapse in support for the Conservatives, and will cost them their majority if things don’t change dramatically.

“The message to Boris Johnson from this poll is clear: show voters the respect they deserve, clean up the sleaze and fix the cost of living crisis.

“Voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 to get Brexit done are angry and turned off by the actions of the Government.”

According to the research just three of the 40 Red Wall seats which voted Tory two years ago in the 2019 General Election would vote the same again.

Polling expert Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University added that it was older voters who are most likely to say the Government was not living up to the so-called ‘Nolan principles’ on standards in public life.

He said: “Generally, it’s older voters who are the most likely to say that the government isn’t living up to the Nolan principles.

“Given that older voters are [ordinarily] much more likely to vote Conservative, this shows the potential for accusations of sleaze to shift votes by depriving the Conservatives of this important electoral bulwark.”

The research carried out by 38 Degrees was conducted over November and December while the MRP analysis by Professor Hanretty and Survation included over 10,000 interviews. 

The poll also showed the Tories would lose all their seats in Scotland as Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP would consolidate its popularity.

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The damning polling for the Conservatives comes after footage of gatherings in Downing Street when indoor household mixing restrictions were in force and the fallout of the resignation of former cabinet MP Owen Paterson.

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