Weather: Met Office issues yellow warning for rain and wind
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Knock-on effects of global meteorological events threaten a higher-than-average probability of colder weather until January, according to the Met Office.
A La Nina cooling of the eastern Pacific and a negative “Indian Ocean Dipole” – irregular sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean – will drive the cold blast.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook warns the “likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal” at 1.3-times the average.
However, those hoping for a White Christmas will have to wait, as it is too early to “identify weather for a particular day”.
The report states: “There is good general agreement with respect to increased chances of high pressure centred closer to the UK which would see greater likelihood of a reduction in the frequency of rain-bearing systems, an increase in cold, and a reduction in storminess.
“Drivers relevant to the current outlook are La Nina, which can bring higher pressure regimes to the north and west of Europe during late autumn and early winter [and] an ongoing negative Indian Ocean Dipole which could potentially reinforce the influence of La Nina.”
Long-range forecasters agree that after months of milder than average weather, winter could bite hard.
Weather models show thermometers nosediving this weekend with the mercury in parts expected to drop below freezing.
Much of the country will dip into single figures overnight while daytime temperatures barely limp above 10C.
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: “It is likely to turn colder through the second half of November with the chance of seeing frosts and outbreaks of more wintry weather.
“This pattern will be driven by high pressure similar to that which brought the milder weather at the start of the month.
“However, we are now looking at a significant change to something colder with the potential for wintry blasts and snow before the end of the month.”
In the shorter term, Britain is facing a barrage of Atlantic storm systems threatening a torrent of wind and rain.
Met Office rain warnings are in force across southern England on Wednesday and Thursday with around an inch and a half of rain forecast.
Homes and businesses are on alert for flooding on while coastal gusts of 50mph threaten travel disruption.
Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said: “The wind really picks up across Shetland and Orkney as the heavy rain sets in and there will be further showers across southern and western coasts, but some clear spells in between.
“There will be some sunshine by the early part of Wednesday afternoon, so things will cheer up a little during the afternoon. In the southwest, the next weather system moves in with some intense rain associated with this and coastal gales. The rain across Wales, central and south-eastern England will be heavy at times.”
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services and author of Weather Or Not? said: “Low pressure will never be too far from the UK and this is going to bring some very unsettled weather through the week.
“As one moves off it won’t be long before the next disturbance arrives from the Atlantic. It is also going to feel colder, especially in the wind and rain where temperatures will be down in the windchill.”
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